Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 12.383091 13.929681 15.678487 17.820081 20.396446 23.427854 27.312778
2025-05-11 10.550206 12.546352 14.994498 18.279853 22.673450 28.502016 37.105516
2025-05-18 9.234401 11.364298 14.113436 18.031128 23.666410 31.824445 45.269954
2025-05-25 8.305247 10.490358 13.424086 17.809127 24.506313 34.956729 53.996049
2025-06-01 7.636968 9.858349 12.941793 17.745130 25.484415 38.430605 64.445233
2025-06-08 6.983860 9.166058 12.273826 17.274899 25.687874 40.600441 73.248855
2025-06-15 6.553410 8.741529 11.937446 17.250553 26.592457 44.197799 86.586861
2025-06-22 6.008320 8.099996 11.206437 16.484699 26.049944 44.868260 93.449345
2025-06-29 5.517971 7.502381 10.489300 15.655236 25.252894 44.830459 98.533668
2025-07-06 5.147769 7.059953 9.977991 15.118246 24.920813 45.704852 106.674230
2025-07-13 5.265366 7.368729 10.683974 16.785890 29.190330 58.200420 160.233870
2025-07-20 5.151186 7.303595 10.768324 17.333927 31.276248 66.243381 207.812483
2025-07-27 4.828143 6.894678 10.259993 16.741712 30.851121 67.711708 230.549348
2025-08-03 4.700305 6.794471 10.273331 17.165481 32.839438 76.944267 307.801405
2025-08-10 4.482909 6.531552 9.979161 16.937591 33.234239 81.515072 368.470868
2025-08-17 4.288400 6.294669 9.712509 16.734231 33.653410 86.409679 445.307433
2025-08-24 4.130600 6.110076 9.525711 16.675588 34.437187 93.034421 561.176311
2025-08-31 3.934743 5.849801 9.182119 16.244477 34.150671 95.556026 647.842969
2025-09-07 3.807117 5.700172 9.033254 16.222146 34.990927 103.120991 842.852916
2025-09-14 3.602209 5.406586 8.596566 15.519098 33.780383 101.440207 891.313550
2025-09-21 3.402265 5.114082 8.147968 14.756408 32.299902 98.127794 902.912669
2025-09-28 3.247105 4.894441 7.827694 14.261932 31.548374 97.993980 987.740417
2025-10-05 3.339952 5.116108 8.365842 15.795719 37.248727 133.241335 2709.592313